Dividends surged in 2021 but that may not continue, according to Royal London Asset Management.
However, it believes takeover bids will remain a prominent feature of the Stock Exchange.
Senior fund manager Richard Marwood commented: “After a miserable 2020 where dividends declined by 44 per cent to £61.9 billion, the lowest annual total since 2011, pay-outs have bounced back strongly.
“Many companies have reinstated and increased their dividend distributions or paid special dividends. This recovery is reflected in the performance of the IA UK Equity Income sector, which has comfortably outperformed the FTSE All Share Index over the 12 months to end of September. That is supported by strong cashflows in the mining sector, with Rio Tinto and Anglo American both making huge payments to shareholders amid bumper profits.
“For 2021 as a whole, the market expects dividends per share in the FTSE All Share Index to be 35 per cent higher than in 2020 but 15 per cent lower than in 2019.”
From there, he suggests, it will be broadly flat, with a very gradual tick-up through to 2023, down to continued uncertainties around the trajectory of the economic recovery.
Additionally, he points to how the likes of Royal Dutch Shell and BP have fundamentally rebased their dividends, with GlaxoSmithKline set to follow.
Neither does he think bumper special dividends from the mining giants will persist.
Mr Marwood stated: “The good news is that dividend policies should be much more sustainable in future. Not only are the pay-out ratios less demanding, but companies are benefitting from higher free cashflows and profitability, alongside stronger balance sheets as rewards for cost-cutting and streamlining during the pandemic.
“The average EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) margin is expected to be some 3.5 per cent higher in 2023 than it was in 2019, and consequently the net debt to EBITDA ratio is forecast to drop from 1.71 to 1.23 over that same period, providing good support for the forecast 3.8 per cent index yield.
“More broadly, we believe that the UK market remains an interesting place to invest. It has many strong companies and a good mix of sector exposures. Furthermore, it is attractively priced and offers a good dividend yield.”
Noting uncertainties over Brexit and the UK’s lower exposure to technology stocks, he continued: “As valuations languished, the attraction of UK companies was well illustrated in 2021 by the number that found themselves on the receiving end of takeover bids from either private equity firms or industrial buyers. It would be unsurprising if we continued to see takeover activity into 2022.”
John Wyn-Evans, head of investment strategy at Investec Wealth & Investment, predicts global economic growth above pre-pandemic levels, and highlights how corporate profits have been strong, with margins exceptionally so.
He states: “This combination of factors suggests the potential for a mild de-rating of equities offset by increased earnings and dividend payments, and therefore lower, but still positive returns, although likely to be achieved in a more volatile fashion.
“A well-worn stock market aphorism has it that ‘a bull market climbs a wall of worry’. The one that started in March 2020 from the Covid trough has certainly followed that path. It might then be tempting, given all the outstanding worries – ranging from inflation and monetary policy tightening to geopolitics and climate change – to expect more of the same in 2022. However, it is that very tightening of liquidity that makes us more cautious.
“Having said that, good quality equities continue to offer the best prospects for longer-term growth, and they will remain at the core of balanced portfolios.”